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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd