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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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